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MEMORANDUM 



RELATIVE TO THE 



DBABLE NUMBER AND AGES OF THE ARMY AND 
NAVY SURVIVORS OF THE CIVIL WAR. 



RTMENT, 

IL1TARY SeCUETART'8 OFFICE, 
.1/./;/ IS, 






k'S 



D. OF D. 
MAR 13 1913 






MEMORANDUM 

RELATIVE TO THE 

PROBABLE NUMBER AiM) AGES OF THE ARMY AND NAVY 
SURVIVORS OF THE CIVIL WAR. 



The basis of all estimates as to the number of beneficiaries under 
and the cost of any proposed civil-war pension law must be the 
determination of, or an estimate of, the number of the survivors of 
that war at the present time, and of the number who will be surviv- 
ing at various periods in the future, until none shall remain. Such 
an estimate was prepared by the Record and Pension Office in 
March, 1890, at the request of the chairman of the Committee on 
Invalid Pensions, House of Representatives, for use. in the consid- 
eration of various proposed measures which culminated in the act 
approved June 27, 1800. That estimate was reviewed in April, 1896, 
with a view to determining whether, in the light of more recent data, 
any change should be made in it. As a result of that review, the 
conclusion was reached that there was no ground for the belief that 
a more accurate estimate than that of 1890 could have been made 
either then or in 1896; and it is not believed that a more accurate 
estimate can be made now. The estimate made in 1890 and the 
remarks made thereon in 1896 were substantially as follows: 

It should be stated in advance that any estimate of the number and 
ages of the surviving veterans of the civil war can not be more than 
approximately correct, for the reason that the data on which to base 
such an estimate are deficient in two very important particulars, via: 
First, the actual number of individuals in service lias never been, and 
can not be, officially determined ; and second, the numbers of men of 
different ages, at the date of entry into service or at any given date 
during the war, have never been ascertained; nor can the missing 
data be supplied without a laborious search of the many thousands of 
original rolls and other records filed in the War and Navy Depart- 
ments — a work which would require years for its completion. 

Moreover, if the exact number and ages of the survivors at the 
close of the war were known, the problem of determining the number 
now living and the probable duration of lift- for each group of ages 
would still be involved in difficulty, for no life table has ever been 
constructed which is based upon such a class of lives as that fur- 
nished by the veterans of the civil Avar. While it is the generally 
accepted opinion that the expectation of life of men of this class is 
less than that of men of the same ages who have never been exposed 
to the shock of battle and the hardships and privations of field, 
camp, and prison, on the other hand, it has been very ingeniously 

(3) 



urged that, by the operation of the law of the survival of the fittest, 
the reverse is actually the case, for the reason that the individuals of 
little endurance and tenacity of life, whose early death materially 
shortens the average length of life among civilians, have long since 
been eliminated from the class to which the veterans belong, having 
succumbed either to the hardships and dangers of the war or their 
subsequent results. Thus, it is claimed, the survivors have become 
a selected class, whose average duration of life is likely to be greater 
than that of an equal number of nonveterans of the same ages, who 
have not been subjected to this weeding-out process. 

It will be readily seen, then, that the problem presented is incapa- 
ble of an exact solution, and that the results obtained can be nothing 
more than approximations. But it is also evident that an approxi- 
mation which is reached after a careful study of all the data 
available, meager though they are, is of much greater utility than 
the loose estimates and wild guesses which have heretofore passed 
current in discussions of this question. Moreover, it is believed that 
sufficient information is at hand to enable a calculation to be made 
which can not be very far from correct, and which may be safely 
used for all practical purposes. 

As the life table ("Thirty American Offices" male) which was 
used in the preparation of this estimate is based upon the experience 
of insurance companies with a class of lives that were selected, to a 
certain extent at least, and as, for reasons that are more fully set 
forth below, the expectation of life of veterans of the civil war must 
be someAvhat greater than that of nonveterans of the same ages, it is 
believed that the figures obtained from the use of this life table are 
more nearly correct than figures obtained by the use of a table based 
upon wholly unselected lives would have been. If, however, it is held 
by anyone that the expectation of life of the veterans is less than that 
of the class of lives upon which the life table used is constructed, 
then the results obtained in this estimate must be considered as 
maximum figures. 

The following estimate is subject to the foregoing remarks and 
should be considered only in connection with them : 

ARMY. 

As shown by the latest official statement, the number of men 
furnished by the different States and Territories during the civil 
war, under calls from the President, was 2,778,304. Deducting from 
this the number of seamen and marines, 105,963, leaves a total of 
2,C>72,341 credited to the Army. The strength of the Regular Army 
at the outbreak of the war was 10,422, but this number has not been 
taken into account in the calculation, because the majority of the 
men whom it represents, being professional soldiers, undoubtedly 
reenlisted or were commissioned in either the regular or volunteer 
service during the Avar, and are consequently included in the total 
number of credits. The strength of the Navy at the beginning of 
the Avar has been neglected in the calculation for the same reason. 

No official compilation of the total number of reenlistments has 
ever been made, but it is estimated, from the best data now obtain- 
able, that the reenlistments in the Army during the civil Avar num- 
bered 543,393. Deducting: this number from the total credited to 



5 

the Army leaves 2,128,948 ;is the number of individual soldiers 
. ing in the war. 

The number of deaths in the Army, according to the latest official 
compilation, was 359,528, and the number of actual deserters at 
large at the close of the war (making due allowance for those 
incorrectly reported as deserters) has been estimated at 1.17,247. 
Deducting the deaths and deserters leaves 1,652,173 as the probable 
umber of individual soldiers who were alive at termination of 
ervice and were not deserters. 

NAVY AND MARINE CORPS. 

The total number of men credited to the several States as having 
been furnished to the Navy and Marine Corps during the civil war 
was 105,963. This figure is taken as the basis of calculation, and not 
the number of enlistments as reported by the Navy Department, 
which is believed to include a large number of transfers from the 
Army, and these have already been counted in the Army estimates. 

No data are at hand from which to estimate the number of reenlist- 
ments, but assuming that their proportion was the same as in the 
Army, the total number of individuals in service was 84,417. No 
information has been obtained as to the actual number of desertions, 
but again assuming- that the Army proportion is applicable, the 
number would be 4,649. The deaths as reported by the Bureau of 
Medicine and Surgery, numbered 4,588. Deducting the deaths and 
desertions leaves 75,180 as the probable number of seamen and 
marines who were alive at termination of service and were not 
deserters. 

ARMY, NAVY, AND MARINE CORPS. 

Combining the foregoing estimates, it appears that the total num- 
ber of individuals in the military and naval service during the civil 
war was 2,213,365, and that of these 1,727,353 were alive at termina- 
tion of service (deserters excluded). 

As in the case of reenlistments, no official compilation has been 
made of the ages of the men in service at any period of the war. 
From statistics of the ages at enlistment of about 1,000,000 soldiers, 
collect ed by the United States Sanitary Commission, Dr. B. A. 
Gould, actuary of the commission, formed estimates of the number 
of men in each year of age. In the absence of better information, and 
assuming that the ages of soldiers, seamen, and marines were rela- 
tively the same, the tables published by Doctor Gould have been 
taken as a basis for calculating the appended table (No. 1), which 
shows the probable total number of survivors (excluding deserters) on 
June 30 of each year from 1890 to 1900, inclusive, and at the close of 
each quinquennial period from 1910 until none shall remain. 

Table No. 2 shows the probable number of men who will arrive at 
the age of 02 years, or over. June 30, L890, and of the probable num- 
ber that will attain the age of <'>2 in each succeeding year, until 
practically all shall have passed that age. 



SUMMARY. 

(1) Estimated total number of survivors (deserters excluded) June 

30, 1890 ..,. 1,285,471 

(2) Total number of men furnished during the war (credits) 2,778,304 

To Army 2,672,343 

To Navy 105,963 

(3) Estimated total number of reenlistments 564,939 

In Army 543,393 

In Navy 21,546 

(4) Estimated total number of desertions 121,896 

From Army ! 117,247 

From Navy 4,649 

(5) Total number of deaths 364,116 

In Army 359,528 

In Navy 4,588 

(6) Estimated total number of individuals in service 2,213,365 

In Army 2,128,948 

In Navy 84,417 

(7) Estimated total number of survivors at termination of service 

( deserters excluded ) 1 .7:27.:!.").'! 

In Army 1 ,652, 1 7 '3 

In Navy 75, 1 SO 

Table No. 1. — Total Survivors. 

Showing the probable total number of survivors of the civil war (excluding 
deserters) on -tunc So of each year from 1S90 to 1909, inclusive, and at the 
close of each quinquennial period thereafter until none shall remain. 



Year. 


Survivors. 


Year. 


Survivors. 


1,S'M> 


1,285,471 

1,261,232 
1,236,076 
1,20!). 968 
1,182.889 
1,154,810 
1,125.725 
1,095,628 
1,064,524 
L.032 l 1 - 

999,339 

965 

930, 

S94,5S5 


1904 


858,002 
820,687 
782 722 


1891 


1905 


1892 . . 


1906 


1893. 


190' 


74 1.190 


1894 


L908 


705.197 


1895- 


190!) 


665,832 


1896 


l'i|. 


626 23] 


1897 _ 


1915 


429,727 


1898 


1920 


251,727 


1899 


1925 


1 16,073 


190(1 


1930 




1901 


1935 


6,296 




1940 


340 


1903 


1015 












Table No. 2. — Survivors Becoming 02 Years ok Age. 

Showing the probable number of survivors of the civil war (excluding 
deserters) on .lime SO, 1890, the number who will he 62 years of aye, 
or ovev. on Unit date; also the number who will attain (i,2 years of aye 
after 1890, with the year in which they trill reach that aye. 

probable number of survivors June 30, 1S90 1,285,471 

Probable number of survivors 62 years of age or over June 30, 1890 149,531 



Will live to be 62 years old. 


Will live to be 62 years old. 


In year — 


Number 

of men. 


In year — 


Number 

of men. 


1891 


20,817 

22,692 

24.'s01 
27. lso 
3QJ530 
: : 1 . 7 ■ : 
38 203 
43,025 
48,611 
55,042 


1901 


02,414 


1892 


1902 


70.700 


1893 


1903 _ . 


80,234 


1894 


1904 


90,733 


1895 


1905 - .. 


loo, in:; 


1896 


1906 


97,836 


1S97 


1907 


4 1.747 


1S9S 


100S 


5,672 


1899 


1909 . 


820 


1900 _ __ 










The life table which was used in the calculations involved in the 
foregoing estimate is based upon the experience of insurance com- 
panies with a selected class of lives, and its rates of mortality are 
somewhat lower that those of other tables that are based upon 
unselected lives. But, as suggested above, the veterans of the war 
may be considered to be a selected class from among whom, by the 
operation of the law of the survival of the fittest, those individuals 
of little endurance and tenacity of life have been eliminated either 
by the vicissitudes of the war or their subsequent results. In addi- 
tion to this, the lot of the average veteran is very much better than 
that of the nonveteran, in that the former enjoys the benefit of liberal 
pension laws, is given preferment in municipal, State, and Federal 
employment, and is cared for by relief associations and in Soldiers' 
Homes when he needs such care. All of these favorable conditions 
combined must certainly tend to prolong- the life of the class which 
enjoys their benefit, anil there seems to be good ground for the belief 
(hat the expectation of life of veterans of the war, in later years at 
least, is greater than that of nonveterans of the same ages. And for 
this reason it is believed that the table used in the preparation of the 
estimate for L890 and subsequent years has given more accurate 
results than would have been obtained by the use of a table whose 
rate of mortality is higher. 

It should be observed also that in applying the life table to the 
determination of the number of survivors at various dates each 
group of individuals of the same age was dealt with separately, and 
no attempt was made to use an average age in any calculation. The 
inaccuracy of the results obtained by the application of a life table 
to an average age is so well known to those who are at all familiar 
with statistical matters that it would not be necessary to mention 
the subject here, were it not for the fact that since the publication of 
the estimate made by this office in 1890 several estimates have ema- 
nated from other sources in which it has been erroneously assumed 
that the average age of the survivors as determined by this office for 
a given period could be used as a basis for accurate calculations 
covering future periods. It is only necessary to say in this connec- 
tion that, because of the greater rate of mortality among, and the 
resulting more rapid decrease in the number of, the survivors of the 
higher ages, the average age of the whole class does not increase as 
rapidly as the age of an individual member of it. For instance, as 
estimated in 1890, the average age of all survivors in 1865 was '28 
years, whereas in 1805. thirty years later, the average age was only 
57 years. The number of survivors on June 30, 1895, as obtained 
by separately applying the life table to each group of survivors of 
the same age. differs by more than 40,000 from the number obtained 
by using an average age in the calculation. 

According to the estimate, the survivors of the late war (deserters 
excluded) should have numbered 1,154,810 on June 30, 1805; and if 
this figure is correct it should be supported by data obtainable from 
the records of the Pension Bureau. 

It has been ascertained from the Commissioner of Pensions that 
735,338 survivors of the war were borne on the pension roll on June 
30, 1895; that 110,177 other survivors had claims pending, and that 
150,209 "original invalid" claims were on the rejected or abandoned 
files of the Bureau. These figures include those who have been 



8 

pensioned for service in the Eegula/ Army and Navy since the war, 
those who have died with rejected or abandoned claims on file, and 
some duplications in that class of claims. It is impossible to deter- 
mine exactly how much of an allowance should be made for these 
factors, but from the best data obtainable it is estimated by this 
office that a reduction of 57,540 in the foregoing figures should be 
made in order to make them represent individual survivors of the 
civil war. Making this reduction, it appears that the records of the 
Pension Bureau account for 944,181 survivors on June 30, 1895. 

It will be seen from the foregoing statement, then, that the number 
of survivors on June 30, 1895, as estimated by this office, is 210,(>26 
in excess of the number that can be accounted for by the records of 
the Pension Bureau on that date; and if the estimate is correct this 
excess must represent the number of those who, up to June 30, 1895, 
had never made application for pension, and of whom, consequently; 
the Pension Bureau could have had no record on that date. This 
number is, and must always remain, an unknown quantity; but 
being freed, as it now is, from other obscuring factors, it can be 
considered by itself, and each one interested in the problem can pass 
his own judgment upon it. 

It is believed that the number of survivors of the Avar who have 
never made application for pension is considerably larger than those 
who have given the question but little thought are accustomed to 
estimate it to be. There are several different classes of veterans who 
have not applied for pension. The first, and probably the largest, of 
these is made up of those who are yet comparatively young men, 
who are still vigorous and able-bodied, and who are free from dis- 
abilities or ailments that disqualify them in any degree for the 
performance of manual labor or the discharge of their accustomed 
duties. The fact that this class is a very large one will be better 
appreciated when it is considered that, according to the estimates of 
this office, the average age of all survivors of the war on June 30, 
1895. was only 57 years, and, consequently (because of the prepon- 
derance of enlistments at the lower ages), at least half of them, or 
more than half a million in all, must have been younger than that, 
and many of them must have been considerably younger. In addi- 
tion, there must be considered those of all ages who have never 
applied for pension because of their prosperous circumstances, or for 
sentimental reasons, or because they are aware that they are suffering 
from disabilities that are not pensionable under any law. Of course, 
there is no means of determining the total number of persons who 
are comprised in these four classes, but it needs but little reflection 
to convince anyone that the number must be a large one, and it would 
seem that it must equal, if it does not exceed, the 210,020, which must 
be added to the 944,184 considered to be accounted for by the records 
of the Pension Bureau on June 30. \^.)~k in order to make 1.154,810, 
which is the total number of survivors (deserters excluded) that is 
shown by the original estimate of this office for that date. This is 
in the proportion" of 817.01 applicants for pension and 182.39 non- 
applicants per thousand of all pensionable survivors. 

It does not seem unfair to assume that in every thousand honor- 
ably discharged survivors of the late war there were on June 30, 
1895. one hundred and eighty-two who. for various reasons, had 
never made application for pension, and that the estimate of this 



office as to the total number of survivors on that date is very nearly 
)iT"ct. And if the estimate is correct for the date in question it 
can be demonstrated to be equally correct for other dates covered 
by it. 

* But, as stated above, this question is one in the solution of which 
each inquirer can well exercise his own judgment. Those who believe 
that more than eight hundred and eighteen in every thousand of the 
honorably discharged survivors of the war had, on June 30, 1895, 
made application for pension must consider the estimate as to the 
total number of survivors on that date to be too large, whereas those 
who believe that less than eight hundred and eighteen per thousand 
had applied for pension on that date must consider the estimate 
too small. 

A special enumeration of survivors was made during the census of 
1890,'and in a published statement of the Commissioner of Labor, 
in charge of the Eleventh Census (Senate Document No. 135, Fifty- 
fourth Congress, first session), the total number of survivors, as 
shown by the population schedules, is given as 1,034,073. But the 
census enumeration could not possibly have included all the surviv- 
ors, because many of them were out of the country at the time, and 
many more must have failed to be enumerated as such for various 
reasons. It requires but a brief examination of the census figures to 
show that they fall far short of representing the total number of 
survivors jn 1800, and that they can not be relied upon as the basis 
of any calculation for the future. If, as shown by the census report, 
there were 1,034,073 survivors of the civil war in 1890, of the ages 
ascertained by the census enumerators, this number should have 
fallen, according to the life tables, to 919,954 on June 30, 1805. But 
this last number is only 80,017 in excess of the number of survivors 
who were either on the pension rolls or had claims pending at that 
date, excluding regular army and navy pensioners and claimants 
who served since the war, ami is 2^30 less than the number that, as 
previously pointed out in this paper, can be considered to have been 
mted for by the records of the Pension Office on that date, to 
say nothing of the very large number of those who had never applied 
for pension, and of whom, consequently, the Pension Office could 
have had no record. It is confidently believed, therefore, that the 
figures shown by the estimate made by this office are much more 
reliable than those shown by the census of 1890 as the basis of any 
calculation for the future. 

The foregoing estimate of 1890, with the, comments made thereon 
in 1800, is republished, there being no reason to believe that there 
are any data now available on which to. base a more accurate estimate 
than the one heretofore made. 

War Department, 

The Military Secretary's Office, 
May 15, 1905. 



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